Adobe released its online shopping forecast for the 2022 holiday season, covering the period from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, 2022. Based on Adobe Analytics data, the report provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analyzing commerce transactions online. The analysis covers over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud, which over 85% of the top 100 internet retailers in the U.S.* rely upon to deliver, measure and personalize shopping experiences online.
Adobe expects US online holiday sales to hit $209.7 billion from November 1 to December 31, representing 2.5% year-over-year growth. the previous year (YoY). During the holiday shopping season of 2021, $204.5 billion was spent online (up 8.6% year-on-year) as consumers were uncertain about returning to physical stores amid uncertainty. Pandemic concerns persist.
Consumers are expected to spend early this year, which is a Monday Prime Day (October. 11-12) begins before the holiday begins. The first Prime Day event generated record online sales for the entire retail industry, with $73.7 billion spent in July (up 20.9 percent year-over-year). These discounts will encourage some consumers to start shopping earlier, which will affect Cyber Week’s performance. The holiday season will also be impacted by the uncertain economic environment, as shoppers face high offline prices (food, gas, housing) and rising borrowing costs.
Cyber Monday is expected to remain the biggest shopping day of the season and of the year, driving a record $11.2 billion in spending, up 5.1% year-over-year. By comparison, Black Friday online sales are expected to grow just 1% year-over-year to $9 billion, while Thanksgiving sales are expected to decline. to $5.1 billion, down 1% year-on-year. These big shopping days are losing meaning as e-commerce becomes a more common daily activity and consumers see discounts continuing throughout the season. Adobe expects Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) to bring in a total of $34.8 billion, up 2.8% from the same period last year. This represents a 16.3% market share for the full season, compared with 16.6% in 2021.
“The shape of the holiday season will look different this year, with early discounting in October pulling up spend that would have occurred around Cyber Week,”
“Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year at 8.9% growth, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand.”
Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe.
Insights Into the Three Major E-Commerce Categories
This holiday season, consumers will spend $103.8 billion online in total on gadgets, clothing, and food, which is almost half of what Adobe anticipates will be spent altogether ($209.7 billion). These industries have become significant internet revenue generators.
Adobe anticipates that $49.8 billion, or a 2.9% YoY increase, will be spent online on electronics. Although big discounts may hurt profitability and spending, they will nevertheless draw enough customers to keep growth going. Online garment purchases are anticipated to total $40.7 billion this holiday season. This 6.7% YoY reduction will be due to consumers’ growing interest in visiting physical stores as pandemic-related fears fade. Last but not least, the grocery sector had a rise online in 2020 as individuals spent more time at home. This holiday season, Adobe anticipates that groceries will account for $13.3 billion of online expenditure (an increase of 10.5% YoY).
Discounts Expected to Be Massive During the Holiday Season
Adobe expects discounts to hit a record high (over 32%) this holiday season as retailers deal with oversupply and an easing consumer spending environment. Computers, electronics and toys will reach unprecedented heights:
Computer discounts are expected to reach 32% (from 10% in 2021), while discounts on electronics are expected to reach 27% (from 8%) and toys 22% (from 19%). Other discount categories will include TVs at 19% (vs 11% in 2021), clothing at 19% (vs 13%), home appliances at 18% (vs. 4%), sporting goods at 17% (versus 6%) and furniture & bedding at 11% (vs 2%).
The biggest sales will take place between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday. Thanksgiving (November ) November 24 will be the best day to buy electronics, while Black Friday (November 25) will bring the best deals on TVs. This Saturday (November 26) will have the biggest sale on toys, with the best deals on clothing and sportswear arriving on Sunday (November 27). Those looking to buy computers or furniture should shop on Cyber Monday (November 28), and home appliances will get the best discounts on December 1.
While the days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday should offer the best deals, consumers will see the bargains as early as the second week of October, when the discount will hit 15%. . These deals will also last for the rest of the year, with discounts of up to 20% in the weeks following Cyber Monday (November). December 29 to 31). These times will offer more flexibility for consumers who need to manage their budgets in new ways this year.